The NCAA Basketball Tournament 2024 already has four teams that have advanced as Colorado, Colorado State, Howard, Wagner and Grambling earned trips to the first round by winning in Dayton. Three 2024 First Four teams have gone to at least the Sweet 16 in the past decade, so those teams should all be in consideration for your 2024 NCAA bracket upset picks. 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket locks at 12:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, so time is running out to make your 2024 March Madness predictions for all the games.
What strategy should you use to differentiate your 2024 March Madness bracket picks? Only three seeds lower than No. 4 have ever won it all, but with parity increasing recently in the NCAA Tournament, perhaps this is a year to take a swing on a huge Cinderella. Before making any predictions for games in the 2024 NCAA Tournament, see the March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 92% of all CBS Sports brackets in three of the past five tournaments. In an upset-laden 2023 NCAA Tournament, the model was all over UConn’s shocking Final Four run as a 4-seed. It went an amazing 23-9 in the first round, including an astounding 12-4 in the Midwest and West regions.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 20 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
Now, SportsLine’s advanced computer model has simulated the entire 2024 NCAA Tournament 10,000 times to come up with the perfect 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket and find out which teams will pull off the biggest upsets. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.
Top 2024 NCAA Basketball Tournament bracket upset picks
One Midwest Region surprise the model has identified: No. 5 Gonzaga advances to the Sweet 16, getting past a dangerous underdog in McNeese in the first round and then knocking off No. 4 Kansas in the second round. The latest 2024 NCAA Tournament odds imply that Gonzaga has a less than 50% chance of advancing this far. SportsLine’s model, however, has the Bulldogs rolling by 16 points in the first round. They are then the projected model favorites against a banged-up Kansas team in the second round.
Mark Few’s team wasn’t as dominant this regular season, failing to win at least one of the WCC regular season or tournament championships for the first time since 2011-12. That has made some bracket players fade the Bulldogs, but the model sees them as a value pick that can give you an edge in 2024 March Madness bracket.
Another surprise from the Midwest Region: No. 3 Creighton runs the table in the region, getting past No. 2 Tennessee and No. 1 Purdue as the Bluejays punch their ticket to the Final Four in Phoenix. The Bluejays are playing in a region that features elite teams who lack recent NCAA Tournament success, as Purdue has not made the Final Four since 1980 and Tennessee has never made it.
Meanwhile, Creighton has won a game in the past three tournaments, including a Sweet 16 trip in 2021 and an Elite Eight run last year. The Bluejays have four seniors, one junior and one sophomore in their key six-man rotation, and all of them have prior tournament experience. KenPom ranks them as the eighth-most experienced lineup in college basketball, which is one reason why they can get past the Boilermakers and Vols in the Midwest Region. See which other 2024 March Madness upsets to target here.
How to make 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions
SportsLine’s model is also predicting a stunning 4-seed that will reach the Final Four and has one region where the 1- and 3-seeds go down hard before the Elite Eight. With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2024 NCAA bracket picks.